Fantasy Football: Week 1 Recap, Week 2 Preview
It was quite an odd week to start the 2015 fantasy season. Teams thought useless, like St. Louis and Buffalo, proved very prominent this week and juggernauts, such as Indianapolis and Denver, came up quite small. Here is the main point I took away from each team in a busy Week One around the league:
Steelers vs. Patriots- Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski went nuts on Thursday night, hooking up for three scores. Gronkowski is the top tight end easily and Brady is a top 5 option at quarterback as long as he keeps playing. DeAngelo Williams was surprisingly effective with 127 rushing yards against a strong New England front. He is a good low-end RB2/high-end flex play next week against San Francisco. But when LeVeon Bell returns, he is safe to drop in all leagues.
Colts vs. Bills- Tyrod Taylor impressed in his debut, throwing for 195 yards and a touchdown and 41 yards rushing in addition. He is an instant starter in two quarterback league and a strong back-up in standard 10 and 12 team leagues. With T.Y. Hilton likely to sit in week 2, Donte Moncrief becomes the top asset on the waiver-wire this week. Moncrief played much more than first round pick Phillip Dorsett and he fits the mold of a big-body receiver that can make an immediate impact in a potent offense. He played well in a small sample size last year.
Chiefs vs. Texans- Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins stole the show for their respective teams. Kelce caught all six of his targets for 106 yards and 2 touchdowns. Kelce is a top-flight tight end that is pushing Jimmy Graham for the second best tight end in football. Hopkins caught 9 of his 13 targets for 98 yards and 2 touchdowns. Even with the Texans quarterback situation in chaos, Hopkins will soak up the targets and remains a top 10 option at wide receiver who isn't far off from the top 5.
Browns vs. Jets- Chris Ivory came into the season highly touted by the Jets coaching staff and he proved them right for at least one week. Ivory’s 20 carries amounted to 91 yards and a couple touchdowns. He's a rock-solid RB2 until further notice. As for the Browns, Duke Johnson and Isaiah Crowell predictably split carries with Crowell handling 12 and Johnson, 7. Neither were very effective and it's a situation best left alone until more clarity arises.
Packers vs. Bears- James Jones, not fantasy favorites Randall Cobb and Davonte Adams, stole the show this past Sunday with a pair of touchdowns on 4 targets. Jones is a solid add in deeper leagues, but he is not a suggested start next week against Seattle. He's a solid WR4 and a good bye-week fill in down the road. Alshon Jeffery came into the game questionable with a calf injury and there was much doubt surrounding his status Sunday morning. He played and went on to lead the Bears in targets and turned in an acceptable 78 yards receiving. With the calf a thing of the past, he is a top 10 option once again and fire him up next week against an overrated Patrick Peterson.
Dolphins vs. Redskins- Jordan Cameron had a quiet preseason, but he looked very good in the Nation’s capital with 73 receiving yards on 7 targets. Cameron was the perfect middle round tight end in drafts, and is going to produce numbers that will back up that claim. He's locked in as a top ten guy at the position. With DeSean Jackson out 3-4 weeks with a pulled hamstring, Pierre Garçon and Jordan Reed see a large boost in value. Reed has always had the talent to ascend into the top 10 range, as shown by his 7 receptions and a score on Sunday, but injuries have constantly held him back. He's healthy now and needs to be owned in all leagues. Garçon is now the top receiver on the ‘Skins and the volume and opportunity is impossible to ignore. He's a high-end WR3 until Jackson gets back.
Panthers vs. Jaguars- Greg Olsen was not at his best Sunday with just 3 targets and 11 yards to show for it. To make matters worse, he had a touchdown called back because of offensive pass-interference. Don't drop and sell him for less than face value. He is still a top tier tight end and better days are ahead. Due to the lack of weapons in Carolina because of the Benjamin injury, Cam Newton has no choice other than funnel targets to Olsen. Buy him low if possible. Same can be said with Jags receiver Allen Robinson. His production was limited from a tough matchup against rising cornerback Josh Norman. He will surely eclipse the six targets he got Sunday in future weeks. He's still a top 30 wideout.
Seahawks vs. Rams- The St. Louis defense came in with very high expectations and proved them right in a tough matchup. Seattle scored plenty, but Russell Wilson was under duress the entire game. Also, Tavon Austin gives the unit a boost as he can take a kick or punt to the house at any time. He did it on Sunday. One could make a case for St. Louis as the top fantasy defense/special teams in the league. As for Seattle, wide receiver and return specialist Tyler Lockett has become a very interesting deep-league add. He returned a punt for a touchdown and caught all 4 of his targets out of the slot. I needs to be owned in all league that count return yards and is still a good use of a bench spot in deeper leagues as he provides immense upside.
Ravens vs. Broncos- The Broncos offense was very quiet in this one. Players like Demaryius Thomas and C.J. Anderson should be fine, but there is reason for concern for Peyton Manning and Emmanuel Sanders owners. Manning owns a 4:7 touchdown to interception ratio in his last six and his arm strength is almost gone. He's still a low end QB1 but a backup is recommended at this point. Sanders’ strength is stretching the field vertically and Manning’s lack of arm strength may limit his upside in the offense. He's still firmly on the WR2 radar, but it's worth monitoring. Mostly the same can be said for the Ravens. The Broncos defense is very good; therefore, guys like Justin Forsett and Steve Smith Sr. will have better days. They should feast on the Raiders next week.
Lions vs. Chargers- Stevie Johnson and Danny Woodhead turned heads in San Diego this past Sunday. Johnson caught all 6 of his targets for 82 yards and a touchdown. He will continue to have a role in the passing game and is an asset in PPR (point per reception) leagues. Danny Woodhead received all 6 of the goal-line carries for the Chargers and turned them into 2 touchdowns. He's for now the running back to own in San Diego and a great flex play this week. Ameer Abdullah quickly established himself in the Lions offense with 94 total yards from scrimmage and a score. He out-snapped and out-touched supposed starter Joique Bell and it’s only a matter of time before he becomes the starter. He's a high upside RB2 for now.
Saints vs. Cardinals- Andre Ellington went down with a PCL sprain, and the running back job is open in Arizona. Coach Arians called Chris Johnson the “lead dog,” but David Johnson has more upside. In his only touch of the game, Johnson took a reception 55 yards to the house. The Cards running backs have a juicy matchup in Chicago, but until there is more clarity on who will get a majority of the carries, it will be hard to trust either. Saints running backs combined for 18 targets, 15 receptions, and 154 yards against a tough Cardinals defense. This bodes very well for C.J. Spiller, returning in week 2 from a knee scope, who will serve as the passing down back.
Titans vs. Buccaneers- In the battle of rookie quarterbacks, it was Marcus Mariota who shined. His pass attempt to touchdown ratio was an astonishing 4:1. Obviously, it won't be this easy for Mariota every week, but I can't think of a better backup for the owners of the elite quarterbacks as he provides more upside than any other player out there. Jameis Winston’s debut didn't quite go to script. He threw a pick-six on his first attempt, and it didn't get much better after that, as the Bucs were only able to put 14 points on the board. Winston will have his struggles during the season, but he is still very talented and make receivers Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson very relevant in fantasy.
Bengals vs. Raiders- In one of the biggest surprises of the week, Tyler Eifert blew up with 8 receptions for 104 yards and 2 touchdowns on 12 targets. He's a must pick up if available and a must start. Quarterback Andy Dalton is very comfortable with Eifert and he soak up targets in the intermediate part of the field, where Dalton thrives. Amari Cooper didn't dazzle in his debut with just 47 yards, but he still registered 9 targets. He will be a volume player and he will have strong weeks, especially in garbage time where the Raiders will be most of the season.
Giants vs. Cowboys- Dez Bryant broke his fifth metatarsal in his right foot, also know as a Jones fracture, and will be sidelined at least 6 weeks. Terrence Williams, Jason Witten, and Lance Dunbar will have to pick up the slack. Williams’ value gets bumped up to WR2 status. Odell Beckham Jr. didn't light it up in his season debut, but there is no need to worry. He is still as talented as he was last year and will continue to be the main guy in the Giants offense. If anyone is selling him, buy him immediately.
Eagles vs. Falcons- Tevin Coleman received a majority of the work out of the backfield and turned in a serviceable 80 yards on 20 carries. His role should continue to expand and he is a perfect bye-week fill in and a good flex play now. Jordan Matthews’ first game as a the top receiver in Philly was nice, but his upside suggest he can do much more than the 104 yards he produced. He will continue to be a target-monster and will catch upwards of 120 passes if he remains healthy. Matthews is on the cusp of WR1 territory at the moment.
Vikings vs. 49ers- Carlos Hyde exploded for 168 yards and 2 touchdowns against a decent Vikings defense. I wasn't a fan of Hyde due to the fact he's a two-down back on a supposedly bad offense, but he's very talented and a top-notch RB2 with the ability to get into RB1 territory. It may be wise to sell him high now, as his value is as high as it will ever be. In Adrian Peterson’s anticipated return to the field, the Vikings’ offense sputtered. It is a little frustrating, as he only averaged 3.1 yards per carry in a decent matchup, but he's still one of the best running backs in NFL history. Don't overreact.
Each week, I will give 2 lineups of 2 quarterbacks, 3 running backs, 3 wide receivers, 2 tight ends, and a defense. One lineup will be of players I love this week and the other of players I don't like so much. Without further ado, here are this week’s loves:
QB: Russell Wilson (at Green Bay)- Wilson will find the Green Bay defense much easier to move the ball than the Rams defense. This game has the makings of a high-scoring affair (Vegas gives this game an over/under of 49 points) and Wilson has big targets, like Jimmy Graham and Jermaine Kearse, to produce big numbers.
QB: Carson Palmer (at Chicago)- Coming off of a blow up performance against the Saints, Palmer has another great matchup against the Bears. Chicago coughed up 3 passing touchdowns against Aaron Rodgers, 2 of which went to journeyman James Jones. Palmer has a strong array of weapons with John Brown, Larry Fitzgerald, and Michael Floyd, who should play more this week with more time to recover from his hand injury in the preseason.
RB: Justin Forsett (at Oakland)- Forsett struggled last week in Denver, but this week he gets the Raiders, who were gashed by Jeremy Hill of the Bengals for 2 scores. The game script should favor the Ravens, as they are 6 point favorites. Forsett will dominate the touches for the Ravens backfield and is a great bet to score.
RB: Chris Ivory (at Indianapolis)- Chris Ivory has a great matchup this week against Indianapolis, who let Bills backup Karlos Williams to get upwards of 50 yards and score on just 6 carries. The Jets will pound the rock with Ivory, and he will have room to run all game. The only concern is a negative game flow for the Jets, as the Colts can put up points in a hurrying and are 7 point favorites at home, but Ivory will likely work in the passing game if needed.
RB: Ameer Abdullah (at Minnesota)- Minnesota was destroyed by Carlos Hyde on Monday night and it doesn't get much easier when the face the more dynamic Abdullah in week 2. Coach Jim Caldwell assured that Abdullah would keep his role and he doesn't need volume to produce big numbers.
WR: Demaryius Thomas (at Kansas City)- Peyton Manning may be fading, but DT will still produce good numbers because of his ability to get yards after the catch. Kansas City will still be without stud corner Sean Smith and DeAndre Hopkins destroyed their secondary on Sunday.
WR: Jordan Matthews (vs. Dallas)- Dallas is extremely shorthanded in the secondary without Orlando Scandrick and Matthews will continue to draw large amounts of targets. His versatility makes him tough to game plan for as well. He is a very strong DFS (Daily fantasy sports) play this week.
WR: Donte Moncrief (vs. New York Jets)- Assuming T.Y. Hilton sits this game (he’s supposed to be a gametime decision), Moncrief is a must start across the board. He’ll be a full time player in a potent offense. Darrelle Revis will likely shadow Andre Johnson, leaving Moncrief to matchup with with backups Buster Skrine and company.
TE: Greg Olsen (vs. Houston)- The Panthers offense coordinator explained they need to find a way to get Olsen more involved. This is the perfect matchup for that to happen with Travis Kelce shredding the Texans linebackers and safeties all day Sunday.
TE: Jason Witten (at Philadelphia)- With Dez Bryant out, Witten’s services will be needed in a big way again this week in Philly. Volume alone make Witten a top 5 tight end this week in a potentially high-scoring game (55 O/U).
DEF: St. Louis (at Washington)- The floodgates are about to open in the Nation’s capital. The Rams are going to be all over Kirk Cousins all day and some force some turnovers in the process.
This is the lineup of players I'm not thrilled about this week and would fade in all DFS games:
QB: Tom Brady (at Buffalo)- Buffalo contained Andrew Luck very well in the opener, and the same is likely for Brady. The Bills Stephon Gilmore was the top ranked cornerback according to Pro Football Focus. If you own him, you probably don't have a better option, but temper your expectations for this week.
QB: Peyton Manning (at Kansas City on Thursday night)- This is is pretty easy, as Manning has not played well in a game since last November. On a short week against a tough Kansas City pass-rush on the road, it's best to avoid Manning if possible.
RB: Jamaal Charles (vs. Denver)- Charles is an every week starter, but this matchup is a tough one. Denver shut down dual-threat back Justin Forsett last week and can afford to stack the box with the elite perimeter defenders they have. You're starting Charles if you own him, but a great game is unlikely. He's a fade in DFS.
RB: Alfred Morris (vs. St. Louis)- None of the Redskins’ players are worth starting again the Rams’ elite defense. Morris won't have any room to run and won't work in the passing game when the Redskins fall behind. There are better options this week.
RB: Frank Gore (vs. New York Jets)- The Colts are gonna air it out Monday night, especially with Antonio Cromartie sidelined for this one. Gore may catch some passes to pad his stats, but the Colts offensive line is no match for the Jets front seven.
WR: Jeremy Maclin (vs. Denver)- Maclin gets the toughest draw of the game, against elite corners Aqib Talib and Chris Harris. In a likely low scoring game (42.5 O/U), Maclin won't draw as many looks from Alex Smith. He is best viewed as a low-end WR3 this week.
WR: Brandon Marshall (at Indianapolis)- Brandon Marshall will likely be shadowed by Indy’s shutdown corner Vontae Davis. Plus, as I said under Chris Ivory, the Jets will lean on the run game on the road. Eric Decker and Chris Owusu will also be involved.
WR: Andre Johnson (vs. New York Jets)- The Colts are going to spread the wealth even if T.Y. Hilton is out for the game. The Jets will likely put the aforementioned Revis on him for most of the game, which will limit his production.
TE: Jordan Cameron (at Jacksonville)- For all of the downfall of the Jags’ offense, their defense has been strong since the start of last year. Linebacker Paul Posluszny and safety Johnathan Cyprien are very good players in the middle of the defense, where Cameron operates. Ryan Tannehill will spread the ball around to all of his weapons, capping Jordan Cameron’s upside for the week. Better match ups are ahead for Cameron.
TE: Jordan Reed (vs. St. Louis)- Last year when the Rams came to D.C., Reed was not involved at all. The Rams have been very tough against the tight end in recent years and the Redskins will have trouble sustaining drives on Sunday. I'd avoid him if possible.
DEF: Seattle (at Green Bay)- This is as bad as it will get for the Seahawks this season. On the road with a short-handed secondary against Aaron Rodgers spells big trouble for the reigning NFC champs. For Seattle defense owners, this is a week to stream a lesser defense with a better matchup, such as Tennessee or Kansas City.
That's all for this week. Feel free to comment on what you liked or didn’t like about the column and, of course, feel free to give me a hard way to go for missed predictions.
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