Fantasy Focus: Week 3 Recap, Week 4 Preview
Week 3 produced some crazy stats from players with opportunity and injuries continue to devastate top teams. Anyways, here are my top takeaways from another chaotic week:
Redskins vs. Giants- Eli Manning said before this game they wanted to get Rueben Randle more involved in the offense and that promised was fulfilled on Thursday night. Randle constantly got open in route to 7 receptions and a score. With Victor Cruz due back next week, expectations should be held in check with Randle, but it's good to see him flash his potential on the big stage. Jordan Reed continues to produce and finished as a top 10 tight end for the third straight week. His history suggests an injury is near, but keep riding him as long as he's healthy.
Colts vs. Titans- Frank Gore finally showed some game in the third week with 86 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 14 carries. Gore will be up and down for most of the season, but it was good to see him produce with such a bad game script most of the second half. He's a weekly RB2. Marcus Mariota continues to play well and registered 367 passing yards this week. He's a borderline QB1 or now on and an upside play each week. He's a perfect replacement for Roethlisberger owners.
Falcons vs. Cowboys- The running backs stole the show in this game. Devonta Freeman got a whooping 30 carries for 141 yards and 3 touchdowns. With that volume, Freeman is at worst an RB2 and should be that until Tevin Coleman returns. On the other side of the ball, Joseph Randle turned 14 carries into 3 touchdowns. Game flow could hurt him in the future (he only got 5 carries in the second half), but he should continue to get volume with the Cowboys lack of weapons and is a weekly starter in season long leagues.
Raiders vs. Browns- Latavius Murray has emerged into a top 10 running back and is producing like on. He backed up his status Sunday with 154 yards and 5.3 yards a carry. Murray is playing every down and will end up a top 10 option if it continues. As for the Browns, Gary Barnidge had with 105 yards and a score, but he is best left on the waiver wire because of how inefficient and poor the Browns passing offense is.
Bengals vs. Ravens- Both running backs of these teams have struggled during the first quarter of the season. Jeremy Hill was again out produced by Gio Bernard and averaged an awful 1.8 yards per carry. This seems to be a committee and the Bengals are throwing it more now. Hill is no more than an lower end RB2. Justin Forsett hasn’t done much better for his side, with just 124 yards on 24 carries. The Ravens constantly abandon the running game and the offensive line gives Forsett no chance. He's a mere flex play until things improve in the Ravens offense.
Jaguars vs. Patriots- LeGarrette Blount emerged in a big way Sunday with 3 touchdowns. Game flow certainly helped him, as New England was up most of the game. His role will likely depend on game flow and matchup the rest of the season and is more of a DFS play than a season long starter. Allen Hurns is clearly second in the pecking order for Jags’ pass catchers. As long as he's getting at least 4 targets a game, he's a solid WR4/flex play due to his play making ability as shown by his 59 yard touchdown on Sunday.
Saints vs. Panthers- Greg Olsen showed out Sunday after a quiet start to the season with 134 yards and 2 scores. He will continue to be heavily targeted with the lack of weapons in Carolina and is a top 5 tight end easily. Start him with confidence. It was good to see Brandin Cooks get going a bit in a tough matchup with 79 yards on 8 targets. He won't score many touchdowns which hurts his DFS appeal, but the volume will always be there for Cooks. Once Drew Brees returns from injury, he figures to return to WR2 status.
Eagles vs. Jets- The Eagles offense woke up a bit in New York and Ryan Mathews took advantage of his opportunity with Murray out with a hammy. Mathews ran for over 100 yards and scored on a 23 yard wheel route. Mathews definitely deserves a bigger role, but it remains to be seen whether Chip Kelly gives it to him. He needs to be owned in all leagues regardless. Even with Chris Ivory active, Bilal Powell dominated the workload on Sunday. Ivory essentially was a decoy as he didn't play at all until the second half. Powell is the clear handcuff to Ivory and needs to be owned by Ivory owners.
Buccaneers vs. Texans- After being stuck in a committee the last two weeks, Alfred Blue received 31 carries and turned it into 139 yards and a touchdown. With Arian Foster returning soon, Blue remains the best handcuff to the oft-injured running back. Mike Evans got back to his old self with 101 yards on 7 catches. Even more encouraging were the 17 targets he got. The touchdowns will come for Evans and he's an every week WR2.
Chargers vs. Vikings- Just another reminder that Adrian Peterson is the only player worth starting on this offense. Teddy Bridgewater doesn't throw it enough to give Mike Wallace, Kyle Rudolph, or Charles Johnson enough value for starter consideration. Adrian Peterson is the best back in fantasy at the moment. Danny Woodhead has cooled off every single week. It may be best to sell him while his value is high, but that window might have passed. He's still a weekly flex play regardless.
Steelers vs. Rams- The biggest injury of the week was easily the Steelers’ loss of Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben went down in the third quarter with an MCL sprain/bone bruise. There is no official timetable for the injury, but according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter it will be around 6 weeks. This is a huge blow for Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell with Michael Vick at the helm now. Start your Steelers, but just don't expect the ridiculous numbers Brown and Bell produced with Ben. Guys like Tyrod Taylor and Marcus Mariota are fine replacements for Big Ben owners.
Kenny Britt has produced in back to back weeks with a touchdown or 100 yards in each game. He seems to be the top target for Nick Foles and is worth a pickup as a low-end WR3.
49ers vs. Cardinals- Chris Johnson showed much better in this start than in Chicago. He ran for 110 yards and 2 scores. Even when Andre Ellington comes back in week 4, Chris and David Johnson will have a role and this figures to be a committee. All three are worthy of ownership. There isn't much to take away from the 49ers due to the lopsided score. This passing game will struggle, especially on the road. Therefore, none of the 49ers’ pass catchers are sure starters in the future. Only Carlos Hyde can be trusted week to week.
Bills vs. Dolphins- The Bills offense has impressed early, and Karlos Williams has easily been the best back on the team. He continues to produce great numbers on limited carries and has scored in every game. With LeSean McCoy potentially resting his bad hamstring next week, Williams would leap to RB2 status against the Giants. He's the waiver add of the week. Rishard Matthews continues to impress. He's had back to back 100 yard performances and is getting about 8 targets a game. He's been one of Tannehill’s favorite targets and with the volume he's getting weekly, he should continue to produce WR3 numbers. He's a strong ad again this week.
Bears vs. Seahawks- Marshawn Lynch was forced from this game early with a hamstring injury and Thomas Rawls stepped up very well in his place. He turned just 16 carries into 104 yards. If Lynch were to miss time (the Seahawks seem to think it’s not serious), Rawls would be a top 20 play at running back. He is Lynch’s clear handcuff the rest of the season. Again, due to game flow and Jay Cutler’s injury, it's hard to find a solid take away from the Bears. Forte and Jeffrey, when he returns, are still high-end weekly starters and the Bears will improve once Cutler is back and healthy again. It's worth noting though the Bears are willing to trade away their players due to the horrid start, so don't be surprised if Matt Forte is on another team by the end of the year.
Broncos vs. Lions- The Denver backfield is still a mess. C.J. Anderson and Juwan Thompson left early with injuries and Ronnie Hillman ended up scoring a touchdown. Thompson will likely be on shelf a few weeks with a neck injury, but Anderson returned to the game. This is really a situation to avoid, but Anderson and Hillman remain lower end flex plays. Calvin Johnson has been a disappointment this year, with under 100 yards each game and just one touchdown. Stafford’s inefficiency is killing Johnson’s value. Johnson will remain a high-end WR2, but the possibility of a top 5 finish seems highly unlikely.
Chiefs vs. Packers- If there was any doubt who the best quarterback in the NFL was, Aaron Rodgers ended those doubts Monday night. He threw 5 more touchdowns and has 44 touchdowns since his last interception at home. All weapons at his disposal are producing elite numbers and are worthy of weekly starts. Jeremy Maclin woke up in garbage time with 141 yards and the first touchdown for a Chiefs’ receiver since 2013. He won't get the volume he did in this game every week, but it was good to finally see him play well with the Chiefs. He remains a solid WR2.
Here are my top DFS plays of the week and players who get a bump up in season-long leagues:
QB: Tyrod Taylor (vs. New York Giants)- Taylor has been on a role since taking the reins as the starter. He's had a solid 7:3 touchdown to interception ratio over his 3 starts and the Bills have averaged over 33 points per game this season. The Giants defense is mediocre at best (they've already blown a couple two score leads this year) and Taylor should be able to exploit them with his arm and legs.
QB: Derek Carr (at Chicago)- Chicago has phoned it in this season, and last weeks 0 point effect certainly attest to it. Defensively, this is arguably the least talent unit in the league. Derek Carr has a very good running game and Amari Cooper has been better than advertised. The Bear will have answer for the duo and Carr should produce a nice stat line. Carr is an excellent streamer this week and a cheap DFS play as well.
RB: Joseph Randle (at New Orleans)- After scoring 3 touchdowns against Atlanta, there's no way he's coming out of your lineup. The Saints have held up okay against the run the past couple weeks, but they still give up a hefty yards per carry and Dallas’ offensive line should dominate an average Saints’ front 7. Randle should continue to get good volume and is an RB1 this week.
RB: Melvin Gordon (vs. Cleveland)- Notice a theme: start your running backs against the Browns. This is simply a dream matchup for Gordon, who should be in line for a ton of work Sunday. Game flow should help him (San Diego is a 7.5 point favorite), and he is due for his first score. He is cheaper than he should be in DFS. Fire him up.
RB: Karlos Williams (vs. New York Giants)- Williams will likely be thrusted into the starting lineup Sunday, with LeSean McCoy resting his bad hamstring. Williams gets a good matchup against the Giants, who have given up the seventh most fantasy points to opposing running backs. He's been highly efficient with limited carries; therefore, he could be in for a blow up with a full workload. He's the DFS play of the week (only $2,500 on Draftkings).
WR: Amari Cooper (at Chicago)- As I mentioned under Derek Carr, Cooper has been fantastic. He has crushed Jimmy Smith and Joe Haden for over 100 yards and scored against Smith. The Bears have no one in their secondary that compares to Smith or Haden. Cooper should draw 10+ targets and will make do with do with them.
WR: James Jones (at San Francisco)- Davante Adams went down early against Kansas City and Jones was thrust into the second receiver position. The result was impressive. He got tons of targets and produced 154 yards. He should be in line for another big game against the 49ers, who have been destroyed in consecutive weeks by Big Ben and Carson Palmer. He's a top 20 receiver this week.
WR: Marvin Jones (vs. Kansas City)- Marvin Jones has seen his target count increase over the season and he's scored in back to back weeks. He has big play potential that can exploit an Kansas City secondary with just lost starting corner Phillip Gains for the season and is still without Sean Smith. Marvin Jones has a great chance to hit pay dirt again against a secondary that just gave up 5 touchdown passes.
TE: Charles Clay (vs. New York Giants)- New York has given up ample production to the tight end spot, the latest being Jordan Reed’s 6-96 stat line. With Sammy Watkins potentially out with a calf strain, Clay could be Tyrod Taylor's top option in the passing game this week. Strong streamer this week for Gronk owners.
TE: Maxx Williams (at Pittsburgh)- Crockett Gillmore is also a victim of the calf strain epidemic and will miss Thursday night’s affair with the Steelers. Rookie Maxx Williams will step in his place and has a great chance to make an impact. The Steelers’ secondary is still bad despite last week’s result against the Rams and he could not be Joe Flacco’s second option in the passing game. He's another strong streamer and a cheap DFS dart throw this week.
DEF: Green Bay (at San Francisco)- The 49ers are definitely an offense to stream defenses against, especially after Colin Kaepernick’s disaster of a performance in Arizona. The Packers will be in charge in this one and this will allow Julius Peppers and company to pin their ears back and rush all game long. This is likely the best streamer of the week and a great option in DFS if you don't want to pay up for a defense.
Here are the fades of the week for DFS and guys I'm downgrading and possibly trying to avoid in season-long:
QB: Eli Manning (at Buffalo)- Buffalo’s secondary hasn't been extremely sharp in the early going, but this is still a tough spot for Eli Manning on the road. He will still be without Victor Cruz and Buffalo’s stout run defense will make the Giants one-dimensional and predictable on offense.
QB: Ryan Tannehill (vs. New York Jets)- Last week, Antonio Cromartie and Darrelle Revis were thrown at 6 times and gave up no completions. Ryan Tannehill will have no one open on the perimeter against the Jets and the lack of a run game won't help. Leave him on the bench this week.
RB: Jeremy Hill (vs. Kansas City)- Hill is a great buy-low candidate after his slow start, but this struggles should continue this week. The Chiefs have yet to allow a rushing touchdown and don't give up 100 yards a game on the ground. He's likely one of your best options in season-long, but he's well off the DFS radar this week. If he doesn't produce again this week, look to trade for him, as his value will be at his lowest yet.
RB: Justin Forsett (at Pittsburgh)- Forsett has been nonexistent in the first 3 games and it doesn't get any easier Thursday night. Pittsburgh is easily a top-5 run defense. Combine that with his limited work load, Forsett is a sit this week. As a Forsett owner myself, I'm trying to sit him until he produces something. You're likely stuck with him though, as he was drafted as a top-15 back.
RB: T.J. Yeldon (at Indianapolis)- Yeldon has received a healthy workload since being named the starter in August, but he has yet to score yet and hasn't been much of a factor in the passing game. Game flow won't be in his favor (Indianapolis is a 9 point favorite) and the Colts have played very good run defense to start the season, only giving up 2 rushing touchdowns this season.
WR: Calvin Johnson (at Seattle)- As a mentioned earlier, Megatron’s upside is curved by the Lions’ inability to sustain drives. They will struggle again on Monday Night in prime time against the Seahawks. Johnson will see a lot of Richard Sherman and won't get the looks he normally gets due to the tough matchup.
WR: Mike Evans (at Carolina)- Evans was quite inefficient with his 17 targets and committed multiple drops against the Texans. Now his gets a tough draw with the #2 rated corner in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus, Josh Norman. Volume makes Evans a starter in season-long, but limit your expectations for him this week. He's a strong fade in DFS.
WR: Rishard Matthews (vs. New York Jets)- As I mentioned under Tannehill, Matthews will get Revis and Cromartie. Those two have shut down every pass attack they've played. Matthews has had a nice run the past two weeks, but it will come to an end in London. Sell him high if possible, as his snap percentage decrease from week 2 to week 3.
TE: Kyle Rudolph (at Denver)- Only the Jets’ pass defense compares to the Broncos’. Tight ends have done much against Denver this this, and the Vikings don't throw it enough to give Rudolph a chance anyway. He's well off the season-long and DFS radar especially this week.
TE: Eric Ebron (at Seattle)- You get the gist. If I'm down on Johnson, then Ebron shouldn't even be considered. Don't start any Lion this week outside of Megatron.
DEF: Houston (at Atlanta)- Atlanta has played very good offense this year and between stud Julio Jones and the emergence of Devonta Freeman, this offense is much more balance under Dan Quinn this year. This doesn't favor well with the Texans, as they are 7 point underdogs and on the road.
