Fantasy Focus: Week 4 Review, Week 5 Preview
It was another crazy week of football as new potential stars emerged and kickers were quite successful as well. The teams on bye this past week were New England and Tennessee. The teams on bye in Week 5 are Miami, New York Jets, Carolina, and Minnesota. Here is the recap for Week 4:
Ravens vs. Steelers- Justin Forsett finally showed up this season with 150 yards on 27 carries. Although he didn't have a catch, it was still very encouraging to see him him get a full workload. It was a good to decision to bench him in this matchup, especially give his previous production, but he's safe to start every week now as an RB2. Le'Veon Bell still produced without Roethlisberger with 150 total yards and a score. On the other hand, Antonio Brown had his streak of 5-50 end at 36 games. Bell is still a top running back, but it appears Brown’s production may drop more than expected. He's more of a lower end WR1 now.
Jets vs. Dolphins- Chris Ivory set a career high for rushing yards in London with 166 against a tough Dolphins front. Ivory seems to be over the groin injury that hurt him the past 2 weeks, and due to all the injuries and letdowns at running back, he is a low-end RB1. Lamar Miller’s struggles continued against the Jets and he has yet to top 10 fantasy points this year. He has played tough defenses to this point, but we still expected more. He is more of a flex play and could be in the verge of losing roster spots in fantasy.
Jaguars vs. Colts- With Andrew Luck out, Coby Fleener still produce a very solid stat line of 83 yards off 9 receptions and a score. Fleener is a very good athlete for his size and is an every week starter when Dwayne Allen is out. T.J. Yeldon showed well in a tough matchup against the Colts on the road with 105 on 22 carries. He is getting very good volume and will be a mid-range RB2 as it continues. Look for him to get his first touchdown next week against Tampa Bay.
Giants vs. Bills- Rashad Jennings led the Giants in rushing and receiving and got into the end zone as well. While this performance is nice to see, he is still splitting carries with Andre Williams and is still not very effective. He's a weak flex play as long as he's getting just 11 touches. Karlos Williams didn't light it up in his debut with just 40 yards on 18 carries, but he did get in the ends one on a 23 yard catch and run. He may not be the slam dunk RB1 we hoped for, but as long as McCoy is out, he's in your lineup.
Panthers vs. Buccaneers- Ted Ginn Jr. scored twice Sunday on both of his receptions. Don't overreact to this, as he is getting under 6 targets a game and is splitting snaps with Philly Brown and Devin Funchess. He's barely worth a bench spot at this point. Doug Martin’s value fights another week with an impressive 106 yards on 20 carries and a touchdown against a tough Carolina run defense. Martin is still not a great weekly starter, but he remains an RB2 due to volume.
Eagles vs. Redskins- Jamison Crowder led the team in targets with 12 and got 65 yards on them. He's not a recommended pick up this week, but if DeSean Jackson stays out awhile longer and he continues to get volume, he could have value in the future. Sam Bradford had the deep ball going in Washington, with 2 touchdowns over 35 yards. He almost had a third to Jordan Matthews as well. Bradford seems to have found a rhythm finally in Philly and is worth a spot on fantasy rosters as a backup. He could be valuable during bye weeks.
Raiders vs. Bears- Martellus Bennett was a target monster Sunday with 11 receptions on 13 targets. Even when Alshon Jeffery returns, Bennett will continue to soak up targets and is an every week start as a tight end. Both Raider receivers Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper kept up their good start to the season with Crabtree having 80 yards and Cooper scoring on a 26 yard pass. Both will have value and Cooper is an every week WR2. Crabtree will have value over bye weeks.
Texans vs. Falcons- Devonta Freeman did it again with 3 more touchdowns on Sunday and he now leads the league in scores this year. There is no guarantee Tevin Coleman gets even part of his job back and Freeman is a high-end RB1 until further notice. Arian Foster didn't show well in his season debut with just 35 yards and a lost fumble. Be patient, as he is still knocking off the rust and is a top tier talent. He's always locked in as an RB1 when he plays.
Chiefs vs. Bengals- So much for the Jeremy Hill struggles. He got back on track with 3 touchdowns against the Chiefs. Bernard still had a better average and led the team in yards and carries, but Hill has a whooping 5 touchdowns in 4 games. He's the man to own in the Bengals’ backfield. Charcandrick West has over taken Knile Davis as the handcuff to own in Kansas City. All Jamaal Charles owners need him rostered as insurance.
Browns vs. Chargers- Even with so many injuries on the Chargers offense, Philip Rivers still showed out with 358 yards and 3 touchdown passes. Rivers has done very well and has solidified his QB1 status. He's a solid weekly starter. This was finally the week of Duke Johnson Jr. we've been waiting for. The rookie impressed with 9 receptions for 85 yards and got that first career touchdown. He also got goal line work over Isaiah Crowell. Johnson now enters the flex discuss each week and is an RB2 in PPR.
Packers vs. 49ers- Eddie Lacy ran well despite not hitting pay dirt this week. He is over the ankle injury suffered in week 2 and is an every week RB1 despite the slow start. He did this last year and was an asset by the end of the season. Since his monster week 1 performance, Carlos Hyde has averaged less than 3.5 yards per carry and hasn't scored. The negatives that caused me to be down on Hyde in drafts are coming true and if you didn't sell him after week 1, you likely stuck throwing him out there week to week. He's a low-end RB2 still because of volume.
Rams vs. Cardinals- Todd Gurley exploded for 146 yards against a stingy Cardinals’ run defense. It appears the Rams are comfortable giving him the full workload and is a rock-solid RB2 just based on talent. Get him in your lineup from now on out. Chris Johnson continued to carry the mail against Rams and stayed productive. Bruce Arians feels comfort giving him the rock and volume will keep him in the RB2 discussion even with Andre Ellington due back this week.
Vikings vs. Broncos- Ronnie Hillman stole the backfield job from C.J. Anderson on Sunday with a big 72 yard touchdown run. Head coach Gary Kubiak said after the game Hillman needs more touches. He has surpassed Anderson and needs to be owned in all leagues. Mike Wallace finally got 10 targets and made good use of them with 8 receptions for 83 yards and a touchdowns. Wallace is back in the WR3 discussion and is safe to use in your lineup if he can get the volume he did Sunday again.
Cowboys vs. Saints- Will Snead has emerged as one of the top wide receiver pick up of the week. He played more snaps than Brandon Coleman and Marques Colston this week and only Brandin Cooks is seeing more targets than him. It's time to pick him up in 12-14 team leagues. Terrence Williams saw 10 targets and managed a touchdown late, but was very inefficient catching only 3 of the 10 targets. He remains a low-floor WR3 who is not a recommended start against New England.
Lions vs. Seahawks- Thomas Rawls wasn't very effective with Lynch out only gaining 48 yards on 17 carries, but is alone in the backfield if Lynch were to miss more time. Keep him and check Lynch’s status throughout the week, as Rawls would be an RB2 if called upon again. Matthew Stafford’s touchdown to interception ratio is a lowly 5:5 through 4 weeks. Blake Bortles, Jameis Winston, Kirk Cousins and Nick Foles have all scored more fantasy points than Stafford this season. It's time to move on from Matthew Stafford.
Here is the lineup of players I'm thinking about in DFS and get an upgrade in season-long:
QB: Eli Manning (vs. San Francisco)- Starting quarterbacks against San Francisco has been a smart decision this year and Eli Manning should continue the slaughter of their secondary Sunday night. The 49ers have allowed 6 touchdowns and just picked off 2 passes. In a home game with weapons like Odell Beckham and Rueben Randle on the perimeter, Manning should feast.
QB: Philip Rivers (vs. Pittsburgh)- Rivers has quietly been one of the more impressive performers early on. He's on pace for nearly 5,000 yards. Now he gets a date with Pittsburgh, who have impressed the last 2 weeks in pass defense, but is still a secondary to target. This game has a health over/under of 45.5 points, and Rivers is a good bet for multiple touchdowns.
RB: Todd Gurley (at Green Bay)- Gurley is easily he DFS play of the week, with a cheap $4,300 cost on DraftKings. After pouring it on against a dominant Cardinal front, Gurley gets a much better matchup against Green Bay. Game flow could affect his volume, but after last week there's no way you're leaving him on your bench this week.
RB: Justin Forsett (vs. Cleveland)- Forsett finally got back on track last week and should definitely be trusted to produce again this week. The Ravens are with Steve Smith and likely Crockett Gillmore this week and figure to lean on the ground game this week. Also the Browns have a sorry run defense, allowing a top-15 fantasy scorer at the position this week. He's pretty cheap this week on DFS this week also.
RB: Dion Lewis (at Dallas)- LeGarrette Blount may have had 3 scores the last time New England played, but Lewis is still the primary option in the backfield. Lewis has out snapped Blount in every game where the score was somewhat close and is the guy New England counts on passing downs. Dallas allowed Mark Ingram and C.J. Spiller to combine for 11 receptions and 150 yards plus a touchdown last week. Lewis is a top-15 running back this week.
WR: Keenan Allen (vs. Pittsburgh)- Allen is on pace for over 1,500 yards receiving and 12 touchdowns. He has been a target monster and gets the Steelers’ paltry secondary this week. He's a strong DFS play and a top-10 option at receiver.
WR: Jeremy Maclin (vs. Chicago)- Maclin is another high-volume play with a great matchup. None of the Bears’ corners grade out in the top 50 of Pro Football Focus and aren't very good to begin with. Maclin has a safe floor with Alex Smith funneling him the ball on a week to week basis. Keep rolling with the WR2.
WR: Allen Robinson (at Tampa Bay)- Robinson has played a tough schedule thus far against the likes of Josh Norman, Brent Grimes, and Vontae Davis and is still on pace for over 1,300 yards and 8 touchdowns. The schedule starts to ease up this week against Tampa Bay, who has yielded the 14th most fantasy points to wide receivers. Robinson is ultra cheap in DFS this week.
TE: Charles Clay (at Tennessee)- With Sammy Watkins out, Clay got 13 targets and had 111 yards on them. He also could've had a touchdown, but it was called back by penalty. With Watkins and potentially Karlos Williams out this week, the Bills figure to lean on Tyrod Taylor’s arm for offense and this bodes well for Clay. He's back on the love list and is a fantasy starter this week against Tennessee.
TE: Owen Daniels (at Oakland)- Daniels caught his first touchdown as a Bronco last week and the chances are he will do it again on Sunday. The Raiders have given up a score to opposing tight ends in every game this year. Daniels is a nice cheap DFS dart-throw and bye week streamer this week.
DEF: New York Giants (vs. San Francisco)- Stream your defenses against San Francisco. Rinse and Repeat. The Niners can't do anything right on offense. They can't pass block, run block, and Kaepernick is guaranteed to turn it over at least once a game. The G-Men have a best matchup you could wish for in their backyard on prime time.
Here is the list of fades and avoids for the week:
QB: Russell Wilson (at Cincinnati)- This isn't a very good spot for Wilson, who is on the road in a projected low-scoring affair (43 O/U). The Bengals have only given up 6 touchdown passes in 4 games. The Seahawks will likely lean on the run game on the road and control the time of possession to better their chances of winning. Wilson is nothing more than a low-end QB1 this week.
QB: Andy Dalton (vs. Seattle)- Dalton has the home field advantage, but he doesn't have the matchup this week. Seattle is giving up the fourth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Dalton is still a strong quarterback in fantasy this year, as he has his weapons healthy this year, but this is a week to fade him.
RB: Joseph Randle (vs. New England)- Joseph Randle scored last week, but was essentially benched after nearly fumbling the said touchdown, as Darren McFadden dominated the snaps and carries. This week against New England, Dallas is projected to be playing from behind (New England is a 9 point favorite), and won't be worrying about establishing a running game.
RB: Carlos Hyde (at New York)- This isn't a terrible matchup for Hyde, but the Niners’ offense can't move the ball enough for Hyde to establish a rhythm on the ground. The Giants have shut down Matt Jones, Alfred Morris, and Karlos Williams in consecutive weeks. This is a situation to avoid on the road.
RB: Melvin Gordon (vs. Pittsburgh)- Despite the success of Forsett against the Steelers last week, the Steelers still rank as a top-5 run defense. Danny Woodhead is in control of passing down duties and the Chargers will lean on the passing game on Monday night. Better days are ahead for MG3.
WR: Calvin Johnson (vs. Arizona)- Patrick Peterson is playing the best defense of his career and Calvin Johnson is in the biggest slump of his career. Peterson hasn't allowed a touchdown this year and Johnson has scored and gone over 80 yards once this season. If you have Calvin in season-long, you're starting him cause it's the best you got, but you can't feel good about it. He's way off the DFS radar.
WR: A.J. Green (vs. Seattle)- Green gets the matchup downgrade that the rest of the Bengals’ offense gets this week. Seattle is bottom 5 in fantasy points allowed to receivers this year. Richard Sherman is as good as it gets at cornerback and figures to neutralize Green this week. He's startable in season-long but not in DFS this week.
WR: Amari Cooper (vs. Denver)- it's hard to envision Cooper having a great week against such a good secondary even at home. Only one wide receiver has scored on Denver this year: Mike Wallace. Cooper may still get yardage due to volume, but can't be trusted to do much more than that.
TE: Tyler Eifert (vs. Seattle)- Eifert has cooled since his electric start, and it doesn't look promising to get back on track against Seattle. Seattle just doesn't allow fantasy points to opposing pass catchers. He's okay for season-long, but well off the DFS radar.
TE: Gary Barnidge (at Baltimore)- Barnidge has enjoyed a nice two week stretch where he's compiled over 170 yards and 2 touchdowns. It ends against Baltimore. No team has allowed fewer fantasy points or catches to tight ends this season and shut out the aforementioned Eifert. Barnidge is best left on the bench or waiver wire this week.
DEF: St. Louis (at Green Bay)- St. Louis has played great defense this year, but there's no way you're starting them in Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers has a 43:0 touchdown to interception ratio since the beginning of last season. Find a streamer, like Green Bay or New York, for the week.
