Fantasy Focus: Week 6 Review, Week 7 Preview
It was another action-packed week in the NFL, with many teams blowing up the score boards across the nation. This week the Broncos, Packers, Bengals, and Bears are all on bye. This week’s Thursday night game is Seattle vs. San Francisco. Jacksonville and Buffalo square off in London at 9:30 A.M. EST. Plan accordingly. Here are my thoughts on a busy week of football:
Falcons vs. Saints- Out of nowhere Benjamin Watson exploded for 10 receptions, 139 yards, and a touchdown. While it’s awfully tempting to chase these stats and add Watson, I wouldn't consider him yet, as this is the first time all season he went over 60 yards. A repeat performance could change that though. He’s blown past preseason darling Josh Hill. Roddy White is still not a fantasy option, regardless of the touchdown he scored. Hankerson still got more targets than him and out-snapped him.
Redskins vs. Jets- Chris Ivory is a legit RB1 now. He totaled 196 yards and averaged 7.3 yards per carry against a top-5 run defense in Washington. The Jets will continue to feed him the rock and are dedicated to the run no matter the matchup. Plus, he keeps producing in the passing game. Keep firing him up. The Redskins’ running game cannot be trusted anymore. Even with Matt Jones out this week, Alfred Morris could only muster up 21 yards on 11 carries. Chris Thompson continued to work in the passing game. None of these backs are must owns anymore.
Cardinals vs. Steelers- Welcome back Martavis Bryant. With Landry Jones in the game for the injured Michael Vick, Bryant erupted for 137 yards and two touchdowns. With Landry certain to start again and Big Ben close to a return, Bryant is a must start from now on out. John Brown, not Larry Fitzgerald, went off for 196 yards on 10 receptions. Brown has been a little up and down, but he possesses weekly WR2 upside and should be a fixture in your lineup.
Chiefs vs. Vikings- Stefon Diggs got the start for the injured Charles Johnson and probably left him in the dust for the rest of the year. He produced again with 7 receptions and 129 yards. He's not a great bet to score weekly, but he's ideal for PPR and really needs to be owned in all leagues. We didn't learn much from the Kansas City backfield on Sunday. West got most of the work as expected, but he didn't do much with them, only averaging 3.7 yards per carry. Knile Davis got some work after West fumbled late in the game. Neither should be started in Week 7.
Bengals vs. Bills- Andy Dalton has emerged as one of the top quarterbacks in fantasy this season. He threw 3 more touchdowns on Sunday and his touchdown to interception ratio is a sparkling 14:2. Start Dalton every week regardless of the matchup. LeSean McCoy returned from his hamstring strain and churned out 90 yards on 17 carries. He's safe to insert back into lineups as an RB2 and seems to have full control of the backfield.
Bears vs. Lions- Calvin Johnson finally broke out of his slump with 6 receptions and 166 yards and a touchdown. Megatron looked like his old self and the schedule lightens up the rest of the season. He is back in WR1 status. Alshon Jeffery also turned in a big game with 147 yards and a score. Returning from a calf injury, Jeffrey looked good as new and will continue to soak up the targets. Start him with confidence next week.
Broncos vs. Browns- Peyton Manning is no longer a must roster. The only thing giving him value is his name. He has a 1:5 touchdown to interception ratio his last 2 weeks. He simply can't get the ball where he wants to even with his elite weapons. He can't be trusted as a fantasy option anymore. Travis Benjamin keeps producing on the weekly. He caught 9 passes for 117 yards against the best secondary in football. It's safe to put Benjamin in the WR3 conversation and is an every week starter.
Texans vs. Jaguars- Brian Hoyer looked good Sunday as well with 3 touchdowns. He has been very good since coming in for Ryan Mallett in Week 5. Hoyer is worth streamer consideration in good matchups. Blake Bortles may not be a great NFL quarterback, but he's tearing it up in fantasy. He's been a top 5 guy at the position and has been quality in every start with the exception of Week 1. He's not only roster-worthy, but he's an every week starter. He's well above the likes of Peyton Manning and Matthew Stafford.
Dolphins vs. Titans- Lamar Miller finally arrived with 113 yards and a score against the Titans. With Philbin gone, the Dolphins finally seemed committed to Miller, giving him 19 carries. His schedule has cleared up and is a quality RB2 now. Marcus Mariota suffered a grade 2 MCL sprain on Sunday and while he says there is a good chance he plays this week, it seems a little hard to believe considering the severity of the injury. It’s best to avoid Tennessee skill position players if he does miss, but Delanie Walker has remained productive and is a solid start regardless.
Panthers vs. Seahawks- Jonathan Stewart scored his first 2 touchdowns of the year against a top run defense in Seattle, but still averaged under 4 yards per carry. Stewart stays in RB2 territory do to volume, but his value resides in his touchdowns. A week after all the panic, Jimmy Graham turned in a huge performance against one of the top secondaries in the league, tallying 140 yards and getting a season high 12 targets. This proves that even though Graham’s production will be up and down, he's a must start due to his potential for these big performances and his touchdown upside.
Chargers vs. Packers- James Starks may have just taken control of the backfield from Eddie Lacy. Lacy hasn't been able to get healthy and Starks took advantage with 117 total yards and 2 touchdowns. Lacy is still the better back and will get a bye-week to heal up a bit, but Starks has impressed and has earned more playing time. Philip Rivers is clearly a top quarterback option this season. He's thrown multiple touchdowns in all but one game this year and leads the league in passing yards. He is coming of a 503 yard, 2 touchdown performance against a top 10 pass defense and should be locked into lineups next week against Oakland.
Ravens vs. 49ers- Colin Kaepernick has shown his talent the past two weeks, going over 260 yards in both games and avoiding any turnovers. “Kaep” has the weapons to be effective and has earned his way back into streamer consideration in plus matchups. So much for the back injury. Steve Smith returned to action in a big way Sunday with 137 yards and a touchdown. When Smith is healthy, he is a no brainier start, even in tougher matchups like next week. He's just relentless.
Patriots vs. Colts- Predictably, LeGarrette Blount got most of the work in the back field and turned in a great performance, as he scored twice and went over 100 total yards. Blount is a matchup play, but he is a good bet to score weekly and is a solid RB2 going forward. Even though Dion Lewis struggled in this one, keep firing him up. He hasn't lost his role and isn't dependent on matchups. Donte Moncrief solidified his status in this game as the second option to TY Hilton in this game, as he finished with more yards and targets than Andre Johnson again. He's a supreme talent and a solid WR2 in this offense.
Giants vs. Eagles- DeMarco Murray looks like he's back with another good outing in which he had over 100 yards on the ground and a touchdown. He's still not gonna be the top-notch RB1 those who drafted him hoped he would be, but he's a solid starter and isn't going to leave RB2 territory it seems. The Giants struggles on offense in Philly, and they continued to rotate the backfield. This week it was Rashad Jennings leading the charge. He and Vereen are worth owning in deeper leagues, but good luck knowing when to start them.
Here's the guys I love this week:
QB: Carson Palmer (vs. Baltimore)- Baltimore has become the pass defense to pick on in fantasy and after an average past 3 weeks for Palmer, he gets the dream matchup at home on Monday Night. All but two opposing quarterbacks have gone over 300 yards and they have only picked off 3 passes this year. The Cardinals’ projected team total and the spread only help his cause. He is the top quarterback for the week.
QB: Philip Rivers (vs. Oakland)- Coming off 503 yards last week, there is no way you can bench him against the Raiders at home. This game has a high projected scoring total (47 point O/U), and Oakland has given up multiple touchdowns in all but one game this year. Rivers is a top end quarterback this week.
RB: Todd Gurley (vs. Cleveland)- Gurley has one of the best matchups of the week against Cleveland, who gives up the fourth most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Coming off back to back 140 yard performances, he should get plenty of volume in a game they are projected to win. He is very cheap in DFS this week.
RB: LeSean McCoy (at Jacksonville)- It was announced on Thursday that Tyrod Taylor and Sammy Watkins are not going to play on Sunday against the Jaguars. This bodes very well for LeSean McCoy. The Bills figures to lean on their rushing attack against a defense that got obliterated by Doug Martin and Arian Foster the past 2 weeks. After looking healthy last week, McCoy should be ready to rumble.
RB: Latavius Murray (at San Diego)- San Diego is another run defense to target in fantasy, as they've allowed a touchdown to an opposing running back to score in every game this year. They have a stingy secondary, so the best way to attack is on the ground. After a few rough weeks, Oakland will lean on Murray and he will continue the streak another week.
WR: Brandon Marshall (at New England)- Marshall has scored or gone over 100 yards in every game this season and nothing about the Patriots secondary suggest they can end the streak. Malcolm Butler is 5’11 and 190 Lbs. compared to Marshall’s 6’4 and 230 Lbs. In a game where the Jets will likely have to catch up, Marshall should be a focal point.
WR: John Brown (vs. Baltimore)- Brown has a mouth-watering matchup against a Baltimore secondary oozing points to wide receivers. Plus, after the past 3 weeks of him getting at least 70 receiving yards and seeing his volume explode last week, he's a no-brainer start. He's a great DFS play this week given his cheap price.
WR: Martavis Bryant (at Kansas City)- After a breakout performance in his first game back and Landry Jones taking control until Roethlisberger returns, Bryant becomes very appealing this week in all formats. He will continue to soak up targets and gets a Chiefs defense that has constantly been smoked by opposing wide outs. With a price of just $4,700 on Draftkings, he's the DFS play of the week.
TE: Antonio Gates (vs. Oakland)- Add Ladarius Green here as well because Gates has missed practice the past two days due to a knee issue. Whether it's Green or Gates, they need to be in lineups, as the Raiders have given up a touchdown to tight ends in every game except against the Broncos. Rivers has shown an affinity for the tight end this year, and whoever gets the start will get good volume.
TE: Delanie Walker (vs. Atlanta)- Even with Mariota potentially out this week, Walker is still a quality play given his role in the offense as a security blanket and the weekly volume he gets. After watching Ben Watson shred the Falcons last week, Walker becomes a high-end TE1.
DEF: St. Louis (vs. Cleveland)- St. Louis has passed the test of their brutal schedule before the bye week, even forcing Aaron Rodgers to turn it over 3 times. Now they are well rested for the Browns at home, who are giving up over 3 sacks a game. Start St. Louis with confidence.
Here are the guys I'm avoiding if I can this week:
QB: Matt Ryan (at Tennessee)- Ryan has been solid this season, but that's about it. He's only the overall QB18 this year. Since Week 3, it's been all Devonta Freeman and the Falcons will continue to ride him against a defense that just got shredded by Lamar Miller. Tennessee has also been solid against quarterbacks this year. Ryan isn't a top play this week.
QB: Matthew Stafford (vs. Minnesota)- Don't chase last week’s points. Stafford played very well against Chicago, but that was against a bottom-barrel talent of a secondary. Minnesota has quieted the likes of Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, and Stafford earlier this year. Xavier Rhodes can matchup up with Calvin Johnson. Keep Stafford on your bench or waiver wire.
RB: Marshawn Lynch (at San Francisco)- Lynch has only averaged 4 yards per carry once this season and hasn't proven that he can still run with the best of them. Pair that with him having to play a San Francisco defense that has defended the run much better the past two weeks on a short week has me a bit concerned with Beast Mode. In season-long you got to start him but he's a big fade in DFS.
RB: LeGarrette Blount (vs. New York Jets)- Blount got the benefit of a plus matchup and Dion Lewis being banged up last week. This week won't be kind. He gets the top defense in the NFL, who have only given up one score on the ground. This figures to be a game where the Patriots lean on Brady and air it out and Lewis controls the backfield. Game flow could help him out, but that's all you can really hang your hat on.
RB: Jonathan Stewart (vs. Philadelphia)- Even with the 2 touchdown game, Stewart still averaged under 4 YPC and didn't get involved in the passing game. Philly has a tough run defense that has yield the second least fantasy points this season. Pass on Stewart this week if you can.
WR: Julian Edelman (vs. New York Jets)- Edelman is the likely candidate to get shadowed by Darrelle Revis, arguably the best cornerback in the league. Revis has essentially shut down every receiver he's covered this season and Edelman has taken out in the second half of last week by Vontae Davis. You probably are stuck with him in season-long, but you can't touch him in DFS.
WR: Amari Cooper (at San Diego)- Jason Verrett has shut down Antonio Brown and Randall Cobb in consecutive weeks and only 3 wideouts have eclipsed 50 yards on this secondary. This is a tough spot for Cooper, who was neutralized by the Broncos’ elite secondary in Week 5. Garbage time could work in Cooper’s favor, but it's hard to count on.
WR: Jordan Matthews (at Carolina)- Matthews hasn't gone above 60 receiving yards since Week 2 and Sam Bradford can't seem to find a rhythm. The matchup this week isn't kind in Carolina, but he will avoid Josh Norman, as he works mainly in the slot. He's always an acceptable start due to volume, but he can't be trusted to produce weekly like previously thought.
TE: Gary Barnidge (at St. Louis)- Barnidge is enjoying easily the best year of his career and he's hard to bench with his production, but this matchup is as tough as it gets. The Rams have been shutting down tight ends since 2013. The Browns’ measly 18 point team total suggest they won't be able to muster up much on offense, which will limit Barnidge opportunities.
TE: Jordan Cameron (vs. Houston)- Cameron scored his first touchdown this year, but it's unlikely he will keep the streak going against the Texans. The Fins spread out the rock in the passing game and Jarvis Landry and Rishard Matthews are clearly ahead of Cameron in the pecking order. Out said of Week 1, the Texans have been acceptable against the tight end. Keep Cameron on your bench.
DEF: New York Jets (at New England)- The Jets have the best defense in the NFL this year, but you can't fool with them on the road against New England. Vegas still sets New England’s point total at a juicy 28 regardless of the Jets D. Find a streamer for the week.
That's all for this week. Enjoy and give me feedback.
