Fantasy Focus: Week 7 Review, Week 8 Preview
Week 7 didn't hurt to surprise us like all the other weeks, as injured players came back and produced in a big way. Also, many players saved their fantasy owners with big performances in garbage time. This week Washington, Philadelphia, Buffalo, and Jacksonville all are on bye this week. New England hosts Miami on Thursday night and Kansas City and Detroit go to London for a 9:30 A.M. kickoff on Sunday morning. Plan accordingly. Here are my thoughts for Week 7:
Seahawks vs. 49ers- In one of my bad calls of the week, Marshawn Lynch ran himself out of his slump with 122 yards on 27 attempt and a touchdown. Lynch may not still be the elite RB1 he used to be, but he showed that he still had something left in the tank. Beast Mode’s schedule is pretty tough the rest of the season, but he's a solid RB going forward. San Francisco’s offense is purely a matchup play the rest of the season. As shown on Thursday night, Kaepernick simply can't move the ball against good defenses. No one on this offense can be trusted weekly going forward.
Bills vs. Jaguars- Allen Robinson continued his hot start with 98 more yards and another touchdown, his 4th in 3 games. Robinson is currently 3rd in fantasy points among wide receivers heading into his bye week and doesn't look like he is going to stop anytime soon. Even against the Jets in Week 9, he's a must start. Robert Woods was the biggest beneficiary of Sammy Watkins’ absence racked up 84 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets. Woods has ability and as long as he's the “guy” out wide, he makes for a decent WR3.
Saints vs. Colts- Mark Ingram upped his average over 4 yards per carry Sunday with a 143 yard performance on just 14 carries. Ingram is currently 2nd in fantasy points this season among running backs and has been very consistent. Despite the presence Khiry Robinson and C.J. Spiller, Ingram is an RB1 going forward. Despite a horrid first half, Andrew Luck saved his owners with 3 second-half touchdown passes. Luck may be killing the Colts with his play, but he is here to stay as a high-end QB1.
Buccaneers vs. Redskins- Jordan Reed returned from a concussion after missing the last 2 games and helped fuel the Redskins comeback with 11 receptions for 72 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. Kirk Cousins targeted him 13 times and loves to get him involved. As long as he is healthy, he's in your lineup. Mike Evans woke up and destroyed Washington for a second straight season with 164 yards and a touchdown. With Vincent Jackson and Louis Murphy leaving this game injured, Evans could reach a usage he never has up to this point and is back to high-end WR2 treatment. The talent receiver is back.
Falcons vs. Titans- After going 3 weeks without a score, Julio Jones was back at it with 92 yards and a touchdown on 17 targets. The hamstring problems seem to be behind him and Matt Ryan won't quit looking his way anytime soon. He's back to being one of the top receivers in fantasy. After a promising Week one, Bishop Sankey has fallen off a cliff. Before this week he wasn't getting 10 touches a game and this week he only logged 2 snaps and didn't touch the ball. He needs to be dropped everywhere.
Vikings vs. Lions- Stefon Diggs has emerged as the top Vikings’ skill position player to own outside of Adrian Peterson. He now has back to back 100 yard performances and got in the end zone for the first time of the season. Bridgewater clearly favors Diggs to Wallace or Charles Johnson. Keep on rolling him out there. Eric Ebron returned from a knee injury to catch all five of his targets for 89 yards and a touchdown. Ebron is still 3rd on the Lions for targets, but he has tons of ability and and warrants TE1 consideration going forward, especially this week with tons of teams on bye.
Steelers vs. Chiefs- Charcandrick West exploded for the first time since Charles’ injury and totaled over 100 yards and a score. With the running back status in so much flux in the NFL this year, guys like West who dominate the touches (he had 22 carries) are a luxury. He's an RB2 going forward. After a promising debut, Landry Jones flopped in his first start. He completed just 55% of his passes and threw 2 picks. The good news for all Steeler weapons is Ben Roethlisberger is do back next week and will boost the offense.
Browns vs. Rams- Todd Gurley isn't going to stop. He had his 3rd consecutive game with over 150 yards and finally hit pay dirt for the first time this year. The Rams are going to continue to feed him the rock and he's now a top-5 option at the position. Josh McCown went down with a shoulder injury late in this one and all fantasy owners want him to get healthy soon. McCown boost the value and Gary Barnidge and Duke Johnson, both of which are solid starting options with McCown. Johnny Manziel would kill the value of this offense. Stay tuned in on McCown’s status this week.
Texans vs. Dolphins- The whole Miami offense was clicking in the first half of this game in route to 5 first half touchdowns. Guys like Lamar Miller, Jarvis Landry and even Rishard Matthews are must starts and Ryan Tannehill is back on the cusp of QB1 territory. Start these guys against New England, as they will have to score to keep up. Another week, another terrible injury. Arian Foster went down in the fourth quarter with a torn achilles and is lost for the season. Alfred Blue, Chris Polk, and Jonathan Grimes will all replace Foster, but none are must pickups. Blue will likely get the first crack at it.
Jets vs. Patriots- Chris Ivory struggled through this game with a hamstring injury, but he still ended up saving his day with a receiving touchdown. The injury isn't expected to keep Ivory out of practice, but owners need to monitor this situation. He needs to to healthy to produce; therefore, it's important to know his status in practice this week. After just 10 targets the last 2 games, Gronk exploded with a career high 11 catches on 16 targets for 108 yards and a touchdown. If you had any doubts about Gronk because of his meager usage lately, Sunday’s game put it to bed. He's still the best tight end and it's not close.
Raiders vs. Chargers- Amari Cooper proved me wrong and produced in a big way on Sunday as Oakland won their first road divisional game in three years. Cooper went big with 5 receptions for 133 yards and broke ankles on a screen pass he took 52 yards to the house. Cooper has proven he can produce in tough matchup sand is one the cusp of WR1 territory. In relief of Antonio Gates, Ladarius Green scored once and caught multiple 2-point conversions. If Gates misses more time, Green will be a TE1 and should continue to get love from Rivers.
Cowboys vs. Giants- Orleans Darkwa emerged as possibly the man to own in the Giants backfield as he got more carries than Jennings and Williams (8) and made good use of them with 6.0 yards per carry. Vereen, Jennings, and Williams aren't going anywhere for now, but another quality game could launch him into the flex ranks. Keep an eye on him. Darren McFadden is the clear back to own in Dallas with over 150 yards on the ground and a touchdown. He got over 60 snaps compared to less than 10 for Christine Michael and Joseph Randle. Randle also hurt his oblique and will likely miss time. McFadden is a low-end RB2 regardless of matchup due to his receiving skills.
Eagles vs. Panthers- Jonathan Stewart followed up his two scores a week ago with 125 carries on 24 carries. He easily could've scored, but had his touchdowns vultured by Mike Tolbert and Cam Newton. With such little depth at running back, Stewart is an every week RB2 as long as he's healthy. Jordan Matthews has disappeared since Week 2 with under 60 yards in his last 5 games heading into his bye. Matthews has dropped tons of passes and is now dealing with ligament damage in his hand. Volume and his upside keep him on rosters, but he's barely a starter now and not a must hold in season-long.
Ravens vs. Cardinals- After a mediocre stretch of games for Chris Johnson, he went off against a very good Baltimore front for 122 yards and a touchdown. He was a able to rip off a 62 yarder in the fourth quarter. Johnson appears to be the Cards bell cow back and will stay an RB2 with his volume. He has a mouth-watering matchup at Cleveland this week. Even in a tough matchup where he only averaged 3 yards per carry, Justin Forsett was still able to score from 14 yards out. Game flow hurt Forsett volume in this one, but he still produced and is a low-end RB1 just by being the “guy” for Baltimore. He gets San Diego’s sorry run defense in Week 8.
Here are the players I'm all about this week:
QB: Philip Rivers (at Baltimore)- Even with essentially no production in 3 quarters, Rivers still found a way to light up the scoreboard in the end and is still on pace for over 5,600 yards. The Ravens have allowed multiple touchdown passes in every game this season and this game figures to be high scoring (50.5 O/V). Keep riding Rivers in a great matchup.
QB: Matthew Stafford (at Kansas City)- This week I'll actually advocate for Stafford, as he's played fairly well over the past two games and is heading into a great matchup in London. Kansas City has given up the 7th most fantasy points this season and as long as Sean Smith is out, this secondary is severely undermanned secondary. This is as high as Stafford’s value will get all season.
RB: Justin Forsett (vs. San Diego)- Justin Forsett set has scored or had a 100 total yards the last 4 games and gets the Chargers porous run D this week. The Chargers have given up a 100 yards or a score to at least one opposing running back each game. Forsett figures to get a ton of volume this game and look for him to extend the streak against this defense.
RB: Doug Martin (at Atlanta)- Tampa Bay has been riding Martin like a workhorse, with at least 19 carries and 100 yards in his last 3 games. With Louis Murphy out for the season and Vincent Jackson likely out this week with a knee injury, the volume will only get bigger and he should be in for a big day against a defense that has given up the 3rd most fantasy points to running backs this season.
RB: Chris Johnson (at Cleveland)- As mentioned above, Chris Johnson is the man in the Arizona backfield unlikely the committee that was expected to take place. After shredding a good Baltimore front, he gets the Cleveland swiss cheese run defense that just got torched by Todd Gurley for 150+ yards and 2 touchdowns. In a game where the cards are favored (ARI-4.5), Johnson should get enough run to put up good numbers.
WR: Keenan Allen (at Baltimore)- As also mentioned under Philip Rivers, the Ravens’ secondary is no match for the Chargers’ pass attack. Allen should easily lead the team in targets and should feasts as a Reuters of the good matchup. This is projected to be a high-scoring affair and that will only help Allen’s cause.
WR: Demaryius Thomas (vs. Green Bay)- I know he's struggled with drops and this isn't a great matchup, but my gut tells me this is the time that DT takes off. He had the same struggles last season coming out of his bye and hung over 200 yards on the Cardinals. He should continue to see volume and I think he makes a play or two that could win you the week.
WR: Stefon Diggs (at Chicago)- Diggs is the top dog among Viking wideouts and that won't stop this week. The Bears bring on of the worst secondaries in football to the table and with as hot Diggs has been, they are likely no match for him. After lead his team in receiving the past 3 games and getting this good of a matchup, he's a must start.
TE: Martellus Bennett (vs. Minnesota)- It’s hard not to like Bennett going into a matchup with the Vikings who just got scored by Eric Ebron for 89 yards and a touchdown on just 5 targets last week. Bennett will surely see more volume than that and he is one of Jay Cutler's’ most trustworthy options in the passing game. Coming out of a bye, he's a great start all around.
TE: Benjamin Watson (vs. New York Giants)- Watson was 2 yards away from blowing up everyone's waiver wire, as he got tackled on the one yard-line twice against the Colts. Now he gets the Giants who give up the 5th most fantasy points to tight ends. He's shown that he is still effective even in advanced age and the Saints are getting him involved. He's a sneaky, cheap DFS play this week.
DEF: Carolina (vs. Indianapolis)- Really Carolina D playing at home is good enough for them to make this list, but a matchup with the Colts makes it even better. Andrew Luck is turning the ball over left and right and is likely still playing through a hurt shoulder. Pair that with the pathetic line play and Carolina is a top-5 defense this week.
Here are the players I'd try to avoid this week if possible:
QB: Ben Roethlisberger (vs. Cincinnati)- Roethlisberger will play this week per reports and this is a boost to the entire offense. I would keep my expectations in check though on his return because he is coming back to a tough matchup against Cincinnati, who are giving up the 12th least fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. You probably don't have better in season-long, but he's a fade in DFS.
QB: Andrew Luck (at Carolina)- Luck saved his day last week in garbage last week, but this week may not be so kind if they fall behind again. Carolina’ secondary, led by shutdown man Josh Norman, is arguably the best in the league and at home last week limited Philadelphia to just 16 points. Luck will be under duress all game and will struggle on the road. He's well off the DFS radar.
RB: Chris Ivory (at Oakland)- The matchup isn't good this week against Oakland, who has yielded just a 3.7 average and the second fewest rushing yards per game. Plus, Ivory is banged up with a hamstring this week and in the 2 games he's been on the injury report, he's been a non-factor in the offense. You got to start him if he plays, but you can't trust him in DFS.
RB: Frank Gore (at Carolina)- Negative game flow hurt Gore last week in a good matchup and the same could happen Monday night against a top-12 run defense. He has an okay floor with receiving, but the Colts will struggle to get in scoring position, limiting his touchdown potential. Gore isn't a top-15 option this week.
RB: Latavius Murray (vs. New York)- The Jets defense is brick wall against the run and one to avoid when making fantasy decisions. Tom Brady led New England in rushing last week with 15 yards. LeGarrette Blount had -1 yards. Murray should have some receiving to give him a floor, but a good game on the ground is highly unlikely.
WR: Randall Cobb (at Denver)- He’s becoming a fixture on the hate list and for good reason. Cobb has cleared 50 yards in a game since Week 3 and his shoulder injury is still clearly affecting. Now coming out of a bye against Denver’s elite secondary and my guess is he’ll be shadowed by Chris Harris Jr. Cobb is hard to trust this week.
WR: Julian Edelman (vs. Miami)- This doesn't have to do with the matchup, although he might be shadowed by veteran Brent Grimes. There are too many mouths to feed in New England and Dion Lewis is tentatively expected back and Edelman’s usage has gone down the past 2 weeks. I'm not a fan this week of him.
WR: T.Y. Hilton (at Carolina)- As mentioned under Andrew Luck, the Colts offense will struggle. Between Charles Tillman and Josh Norman, this Panthers’ secondary is very hard to get open against. T.Y. Hilton has built his points around big plays and those will be very hard to come by this week. He's a fade this week.
TE: Eric Ebron (at Kansas City)- Ebron is still a strong waiver-wire add, but I'd sit him on the bench this week. The Chiefs interior defense is much stronger than its perimeter and this bodes better for Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate more than Ebron. He doesn't figure to get tons of volume either.
TE: Jordan Cameron (at New England)- After coming into the season as a popular sleeper, Cameron has been a colossal disappointment. He's only on pace for a little over 500 yards and scored only once this year. Now he gets New England who is very tough on tight ends and the Dolphins will spread the rock anyways. Cameron really doesn't need to be owned.
DEF: Denver (vs. Green Bay)- Denver has been an asset in fantasy this week, but this is a week they some be glued to the bench. Aaron Rodgers doesn't turn the ball over and the Packers will put up points. Take a shot with a streamer this week.
Thanks for reading and best of luck to your teams this week.
