Fantasy Focus: Week 8 Review, Week 9 Preview
The week of the injury. Injuries have plagued the NFL this season, but this week was easily the worst. Key guys, like Keenan Allen and Le’Veon Bell, were lost for the season. Matt Forte went down with a multi-week injury. With six teams on bye this week in addition to all the injury, Week 9 could be termed the “week of death.” The Lions, Seahawks, Ravens, Cardinals, Texans, and Chiefs are on bye this week. The Bengals host the Browns on Thursday Night Football. Plan accordingly. Here are my takeaways from Week 8:
Dolphins vs. Patriots- After an off game against the Colts and missing Week 7 with an abdominal strain, Dion Lewis saw his value plummet. It didn't take him long to get it back. Lewis exploded for 93 yards on 9 targets and scored from 16 yards out. Lewis is a fixture in this offense and is in the RB1 discussion every week. The Dolphins were a train wreck on offense on a short week, but this figures to be an anomaly. Guys like Jarvis Landry, Lamar Miller, and Rishard Matthews are every week fantasy starters.
Lions vs. Chiefs- Charcandrick West built on his solid week last week with 97 yards on 20 carries and a score. West is dominating the touches in the backfield and that alone makes him an every week RB2. If he can stay healthy unlike most of the guys at his position, he could push for RB1 status. New offensive coordinator, same results. The Lions offense sputtered again this week and it doesn't seem likely to get better. The offensive line can't block anyone at this point and Calvin Johnson, who left this game with an ankle injury, is the only player worth starting on this offense.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons- Even in victory, the Buccaneers top offensive weapons were quiet in this one. Doug Martin only managed 81 totals yards; Mike Evans, 48 total yards. Evans and Martin are still every week starters, but consistency may be hard to by in this offense with rookie Jameis Winston at the helm. Jacob Tamme registered a monster 12 targets and had 103 yards and a touchdown of of them. Tamme’s usage has increased over the season and makes for a decent streamer option in bye binds over these next couple weeks.
Cardinals vs. Browns- Michael Floyd benefited from John Brown’s absence with 106 yards and a touchdown, including a 60 yard bomb down the right sideline. Floyd is another guy who has seen his usage rise in the offense and with Carson Palmer slinging it like he is, Floyd is an every week WR3. The Browns rushing attack is a disaster this season. Isaiah Crowell and Robert Turbin combined for a pathetic 17 yards on 13 carries. They must find a way to get Duke Johnson Jr. more involved,case he totaled 71 yards on 3 touches. He's an every week flex in all leagues due to his receiving ability.
49ers vs. Rams- Tavon Austin has become more of a focal point in the passing game in recent weeks, and exploded for 98 yards and a touchdown. He has big time ability, as shown by the 66 yard touchdown he scored on. His targets and rushing attempts give him a weekly WR3 floor. Joe Tomsula announced Monday night that Blaine Gabbert will start for the 49ers this week. This puts guy's’ values like Anquan Boldin at serious risk. No Niner is a must start anymore.
Giants vs. Saints- This game was quite crazy, as Eli Manning and Drew Brees set the record for total passing touchdowns in a game. Brees definitely has game left, as shown by his record-tying 7 touchdown passes, and looks completely over the shoulder injury. He's a high-end QB1 the rest of the season. After a two game slump, Eli threw 6 touchdowns and looked as good as ever. He won't be leaving the top-10 anytime soon.
Vikings vs. Saints- Stefon Diggs is an every week WR2 for now. He did it again with 95 more receiving yards and another touchdown down. He led the team with 12 targets while the no one else had more than 3. Diggs and Amari Cooper are the rookie darlings everyone wants to own this year. Matt Forte left this game with an MCL injury and while he will return eventually, he will likely miss a week or 2. This gives an opportunity to Jeremy Langford, who totaled 46 yards on 12 carries. If Langford does get the start, he will be an RB2 in a great matchup with the Chargers.
Chargers vs. Ravens- Steve Smith Sr. suffered an achilles tear and is lost for the season. It is a tough break for such a great player, but now Kamar Aiken must step up in his place. Aiken has shown big-play ability and has value as a WR3 as the top dog in the passing game. Malcom Floyd hit it big for the Chargers with 92 and 2 touchdowns. Floyd will never get great volume, but he's an excellent deep threat and with Keenan Allen out with a kidney problem, he's a strong own right now.
Bengals vs. Steelers- After somewhat of a mini-slump for A.J. Green, he busted out with 118 yards and a score on 17 targets. He may be up and down week to week, but he's still a premier talent in this league and a weekly WR1. He gets the Browns next week. Le’Veon Bell tore his MCL Sunday and will be lost for the year. It's a shame because Ben, Bell, Brown, and Bryant played only 18 snaps together on the same field. DeAngelo Williams has become the top pickup of the week and is locked in as an RB2 the rest of the way.
Titans vs. Texans- There was little clarity in the Texans backfield in this game. Alfred Blue led the backfield in touches, but averaged a measly 2.8 yards per carry. This is a situation to avoid for now. Kendall Wright left this game with an MCL injury as well and seems unlikely to play after saying after the game that his knee feels “awful.” This could finally mean that the Titans unleash their beast in Dorial Green-Beckham. He should be stashed in deeper leagues.
Jets vs. Raiders- Michael Crabtree led the way with 7 receptions, 102 yards, and a touchdown. Crabtree hasn't gone away since his big Week 2 and will continue to be apart of the offense. He's an every week WR3 in an emerging offense. Brandon Marshall came out of this game quite banged up with ankle and toe injuries, but he was able to finish the game. Marshall will have test this week done, but he said it’s too early to tell his status for Week 9. Stay tuned in during the week.
Seahawks vs. Cowboys- Russell Wilson quietly has been one of the biggest bust of the season. Drafted as a top-5 QB, Wilson is 14th in fantasy points among quarterbacks and has gone over 20 points just twice in Yahoo standard leagues. This offense simply can't move the ball right now and has rendered Wilson QB2 status for the time being. Dez Bryant’s return came up small, with just 2 catches for 12 yards on 6 targets. Richard Sherman had a lot to do with it, but so did the play of Matt Cassel. Dez won't be a top wide out as long as Tony Romo is hurt. He's due back in Week 11.
Packers vs. Broncos- Both C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman got the Denver run game started off the bye with 161 yards and 3 touchdowns. Anderson averaged a whopping 7.2 yards per carry and is back in the flex ranks. Ronnie Hillman is an every week RB2 as long as he starts. Is it time to be concerned about Aaron Rodgers? Maybe. He is an all-world talent at quarterback, but he's outside the top-10 in fantasy points and the loss of Jordy Nelson renders this offense to more of a west coast offense, limited his upside. He's still an every week starter, but maybe not the top option at the position like we thought.
Colts vs. Panthers- This was an ugly game all around for the Panthers’ offense, but the key contributors showed up again. Newton threw 2 touchdown passes. Jonathan Stewart had 80 yards and a score. Finally, Greg Olsen caught 6 passes and crossed the goal line again. Keep starter ink these guys weekly. It was found out Sunday morning that Andrew Luck was playing with 3 broken ribs. Keep this in mind when you start him every week. The turnovers aren't going away this year, as he's forced to make plays that aren't there while injured. This is not a top-5 QB the rest of the season.
Here are the players I like this week:
QB: Ben Roethlisberger (vs. Oakland)- Even though he had a rough start against the Bengals last week, Ben is still a top-tier starter. Without Le’Veon Bell, the Steelers are going to chuck the ball 40-45 times a game. That volume against the Raiders’ secondary, which is 31st against the pass, should result in a big afternoon for Big Ben.
QB: Eli Manning (at Tampa Bay)- After throwing 6 touchdowns in New Orleans last week, there is no way Manning goes to the bench this week. The Giants rushing attack is among the worst in the league; therefore, Manning won't hesitate to throw the ball. Tampa has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to quarterbacks and have no one that can cover Odell Beckham. Start Eli.
RB: Jeremy Hill (vs. Cleveland)- This is Hill’s kind of matchup: a bad run defense where the Bengals will likely win (Cincinnati-11). Game flow will likely work in his favor as a result and he should get plenty of touches against a bottom-5 run defense. He hasn't lived up to expectations this year, but this is a week he could go off.
RB: Dion Lewis (vs. Washington)- After his value dropped as a result of injury, he exploded for over 100 total yards against a good defense. Now he gets the Redskins, who have already given up over 10 touchdown passes on the year. Lewis will continue to soak up targets on a team that is going to score. He's a top-10 play this week and a good bet in DFS.
RB: Jeremy Langford (at San Diego)- Langford is in a great spot this week with Matt Forte out. San Diego is a bottom-barrel run defense and every back with the exception of Justin Forsett and Eddie Lacy has had 100 yards or a touchdown against them. ESPN Bears reporter Jeff Dickerson said it would be a surprise if Langford had under 20 carries this week. With that volume almost guaranteed in such a good matchup, it's impossible to keep Langford outside the top-20. He's the DFS play of the week.
WR: Alshon Jeffery (at San Diego)- Jeffery doesn't have the best matchup on this list, but his volume since returning from injury has been fantastic. He's had 21 targets the past 2 games and looks completely healthy, as he's gone over 100 yards and scored in those games. His skill set and size advantage should allow him to make some plays against the stingy Jason Verrett. He's a good start across the board.
WR: Dez Bryant (vs. Philadelphia)- Richard Sherman got the best of Bryant last week, but this week he should get the better of Philly’s weak secondary. They give up the 5th most points to receivers and their top corner, Byron Maxwell, has been one of the worst graded player at the position this season. Even with Matt Cassel, Bryant is a solid WR2 in a great matchup at home.
WR: Michael Crabtree (at Pittsburgh)- Crabtree has had very good volume for being the second receiver on the team. He hasn't been under 8 targets since Week 4 and has had at least 50 yards in 4 straight games. The Steelers’ defense on the whole has overachieved, but no one in their secondary poses much of a threat to Crabtree. Keep on rolling him out there.
TE: Antonio Gates (vs. Chicago)- With Keenan Allen out for the season, look for Gates to become a target monster. He will take on more looks and Rivers will be going his in the redzone. In a projected high-scoring game (49 O/U), Gates should turn his targets into big time production against a bad defense.
TE: Ben Watson (vs. Tennessee)- Since Week 6, Watson has truly become a focal point of this offense. He’s averaged 9 targets a game during this span and it doesn't look like the production will stop either. At home in a game the Saints are projected to win (NO-8), Watson should benefit from an ascending offense as a whole. Keep on starting him.
DEF: Atlanta (at San Francisco)- San Francisco just names Blaine Gabbert the starter this week. Gabbert has proven ineffective and backup material during his time starting. The Falcons don't rush the passer well, but there are bound to force turnovers against a backup quarterback and running back.
Here are the guys I'd avoid this week:
QB: Aaron Rodgers (at Carolina)- After last week's disaster in Denver, it's hard to trust Rodgers on the road against a top-5 pass defense. As mentioned before, the loss of Jordy Nelson took away the Packers only deep threat and the the receivers can't get open against tight man coverage. The Panthers can continue to use this formula to shut down Rodgers. He's a hard fade in DFS.
QB: Andrew Luck (vs. Denver)- Even with claims that he's fully healthy, Luck is still hard to sell this week. He has been a turnover machine this year and can't seem to curve the issue. Now he gets the Broncos defense that could go down as one of the best in history. They can flat out shut an offense down. Luck won't be immune to it either and will struggle yet again.
RB: LeGarrette Blount (vs. Washington)- It's touchdown or bust for Blount for the time being. Dion Lewis plays more snaps and his receiving skills are superior to Blount’s. Game flow could help Blount like it did against the Jaguars and Colts, but that's hard to count on. Blount has only scored in 2 different games this season and is more of a tournament DFS play than a reliable season-long play, even in a decent matchup.
RB: DeMarco Murray (at Dallas)- the last time Murray faced Dallas, he resisted 2 yards on 13 carries. Dallas just held Marshawn Lynch to 3.4 yards per carry last week. Ryan Mathews will stay involved in the offense, cutting into Murray’s snaps. He's very hard to trust in an offense that has struggle mightily to this point.
RB: Gio Bernard (vs. Cleveland)- Jeremy Hill dominated the touches last week and figures to do the same on a short week. The Bengals are likely to win, which means Hill will be on the field more to run out the clock on Cleveland. If Bernard wants to produce in this spot, he will have to take advantage of very limited touches. My guess is that he doesn't. Not a top-20 play this week.
WR: Randall Cobb (at Carolina)- Another week, another appearance by Randall Cobb on this list. He can't seem to get out of this funk that has him unable to get over 60 yards and in the end zone. It's now been 4 straight games of such disappointing play. It won't get easier at Carolina, even though him will likely avoid Josh Norman. Tight man coverage hasn't treated Cobb well to this point, and it likely won't this week. He might be an okay contrarian play in DFS, but I'd still avoid.
WR: Allen Robinson (at New York Jets)- Allen Robinson is one of the premier talents at wide out and is coming out of a bye with 4 straight games with at least 80 yards or a score. Sadly, that will end this week against the Jets, who will shadow him with Darrelle Revis. Revis hasn't allowed 70 yards to his opposition and only allowed one touchdown. This will likely be the last time Robinson appears on this list, though.
WR: T.Y. Hilton (vs. Denver)- After watch Denver shut down every receiver Green Bay had to offer, there is no way you can feel confident starting T.Y. Hilton this week. Randall Cobb could only registered 27 yards on 9 targets as the leading receiver. He will likely get Chris Harris Jr., who has been one of the top graded out corners this season according to PFF. Hilton is no more than a low-end WR3
TE: Jason Witten (vs. Philadelphia)- Last week Jason Witten had a great matchup against Seattle, but could only manage 15 yards. Now he gets the Eagles who are 28th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season. Pair that with another week with Matt Cassel and Jason Witten is outside the top-10 this week.
TE: Julius Thomas (at New York Jets)- Todd Bowles blitz scheme does put his defense at risk to the tight end, but Thomas hasn't been very effective this season. He can't seem to stay healthy and the Jags don't figure to score many points in New York. Thomas isn't a top-10 play this week.
DEF: Carolina (vs. Green Bay)- Carolina has the guns to get after Aaron Rodgers, and that will be the key. But even is such a bad performance, Rodgers didn't turn the ball over. I think the Packers will right their wrongs on offense even on the road. Carolina isn't a terrible option this week, but there are better streamers.
That's all for this week, good luck to all your teams this week.
